Average price of a home fell by 11.5% in March compared to last year

 

Property prices continue to slide in Tenerife and Spain

Vendors have been forced to slash property prices across the country in order to have any chance of realistically attracting a serious buyer, but with the well documented Spanish property crash showing no sign of abating, prices look set to fall further.

Despite claims from some estate agents and developers in Spain that market conditions are improving, it would seem that they are actually getting worse.

The average price of home in Spain fell by 11.5% in March compared to the corresponding month last year, according to Spain’s most widely-watched annualised House Price Index compiled by Tinsa, a leading property valuation firm. The annualised decline in Spanish property is the highest since the housing crash got underway over four years ago.

Spanish home prices have, on average, now dropped by 28.6% since the crisis started in December 2007 and by 35% along the coast, where the greatest glut of homes are located.

Advisory firm R.R. de Acuna & Asociados recently projected that the average price of a home in Spain will fall by 12%-14% this year – the most since the National Statistics Institute started tracking values in 2007.

Fernando Rodriguez de Acuna Martinez, a partner at the advisory company, said: “There will be more serious price drops this year because of the government decree.” What  could happen to prices beyond 2012? With unemployment standing at 23%, which is higher than Greece, and given that Spain is deep in a recession, with greater austerity measures to come, it would appear that prices still have a long way to fall.

Bankinter estimates that housing prices will fall an additional 6% to the end of 2013, but the reality is that the decline is likely to be greater and for longer.

Banks forced to sell properties in Spain cheaply.

Banks forced to sell properties cheaply in Spain and Tenerife

Banks are going to be forced to sell properties in Spain cheaply, accelerating a four year decline in residential property values that are already 30% below the peak reached in 2007. Most Spanish property market commentators agree that home prices in the country still have a long way to fall. But despite historically low demand and a glut of homes on the market, vendors, residential developers, estate agents and banks have been reluctant to slash property prices sufficiently to meet today’s perceived market value, in order to avoid major losses.

But Economy Minister Luis de Guindos is now leaning on lenders to make €50bn (£42bn) of additional provisions and capital charges for losses linked to real estate over the next two years. Consequently, residential property prices are now poised to fall the most on record this year, leaving a quarter of all home owners in negative equity, as the government forces the banks to sell real estate holdings.

According to research conducted by advisory firm R.R. de Acuna & Asociados, the average price of a home in Spain will fall by 12%-14% this year. That’s the most since the National Statistics Institute started tracking values in 2007.

Based on an analysis of 800,000 mortgages, Standard & Poor’s forecasts borrowers with negative equity may increase to 25% this year, up from 8% in 2010. “There will be more serious price drops this year because of the government decree,” said Fernando Rodriguez de Acuna Martinez, a partner at the Madrid-based firm. “Banks are now prepared to incur big losses on real estate to shift all they can.”

Euribor Rate

Euribor down again which means mortgage repayments up in Spain and Tenerife

Euribor(12 months), the interest rate normally used to calculate mortgage repayments in Spain, fell for the third month in a row to 2.044pc in November, a percentage fall of -3.1pc on the previous month.

After rising abruptly in the first quarter of the year, Euribor has been stable or declining since May in expectation of a cut in the base rate.

Mario Draghi, the new Governor of the European Central Bank (ECB), announced a cut in base rates of a quarter of a point to 1.25% just a few days after taking over from Trichet at the beginning of November. In the face of alarming economic headwinds, markets expect the ECB to cut the base rate even further, hence the fall in Euribor.

When the Euribor goes  down, mortgage payments  go up.The fall in Euribor will not be much immediate comfort for those with an annually resetting mortgage. Euribor is now 33pc higher than it was 12 months ago, meaning repayments on the average mortgage will rise by 400 Euros/year.

The Credit Crunch is back in Spain with a vengeance. New mortgage lending fell 42pc in September year-on-year (to 30,808), and the average value fell 6pc to €111,934, according to figures from the Statistics Institute (INE). Lower mortgage lending = less money chasing homes , downward pressure on prices and more bad news for vendors.

Spanish property bargains

Property bargains in Spain and Tenerife

Despite dramatic property price reductions by many vendors across Spain, bargain hunters are taking advantage of the weak Spanish property market and are offering considerably below asking prices, fresh research shows.

 The latest figures provided by Idealista reveals that in September, the average offer made online through the Spanish property portal was 21.7% below the asking price. Having analysed over 500,000 offers since January 2011, Idealista’s research found that January, March and September are the months with the greatest volume of offers made by purchasers, whilst June was the weakest month in terms of demand. Spanish property investment opportunities The majority of Spanish property investors – 73% – believe that the Spanish property market will improve within the next 18 months, according to a new survey.

The latest study by international property consultants CB Richard Ellis found that three in four Spanish property investors expect market conditions to improve, despite the fact that prices are still falling across many parts of the country. The latest property investment barometer from CB Richard Ellis showed that Spain is expected to improve in early 2013, while 57% of those surveyed said they planned to invest in the Spanish property market within the next 6 months. The majority of investors are interested in buying commercial properties, rather than residential, with half of investors looking to buy offices, while 40% are interested in prime shopping centres. Just 7% of investors said that they plan to buy residential property.

A lack of mortgage liquidity remains a major stumbling block in Spain, which is why three in five investors believe that foreign investors with greater access to financing will drive the market recovery. Take advantage of the weak Spanish property market Domestic investors are taking centre stage in Spain’s investment market making up 66.2% of investors in Q1-Q3 2011, up from 33.3% in the same period in 2010 according to international real estate advisor Savills. Total volume in Spain’s investment market totalled almost €1.25bn (£1.07bn) in the first three quarters of 2011. The firm notes that as well as ongoing sales of large mixed use portfolios which banks are attempting to remove from their balance sheets, local authorities are also selling assets to gain liquidity.

Both the Andalusian and Catalan Regional Governments have portfolios on the market, including well-located office assets, which Savills observes are attracting interest from both opportunistic and core investors. Danny Kinnoch, international investment director Savills Spain, says: “In recent times there has been a two tier market with opportunistic investors focused on portfolio and large scale individual deals while the more traditional core investors remain focused on well-located, high-quality assets with high occupancy rates and solvent tenants on long-term lease contracts. Domestic investors continue to dominate the core market but international players remain on the lookout for opportune deals.” According to Savills major international players including Orion, RREEF, Generali Lend Lease, Doughty Hanson, AXA, Perella Weinberg and Rockspring have all been active this year. Savills has observed increased investor interest in Spain’s hotels market, a shift from the historically dominant retail and office markets and a reflection of the strength of tourism in a challenging economic climate. Key deals in the first three quarters of 2011 include Grupo Millenium’s purchase of two hotel assets, Hesperia Madrid from Hesperia for €80m (£69m) and Tryp Centro Norte from Colonial for €30m (£27m), both in Madrid as well as Mansion Services’ acquisition of Intercontinental Madrid from Morgan Stanley for approximately €68m (£58m). The total investment volume Q1-Q3 represents a fall of 52% compared to the same period in 2010, but with more realistic pricing and improved market sentiment Savills expects 2012 investment volumes to improve on 2011. Kinnoch says: “With an improvement in market sentiment in relation to other Euro countries combined with more realistic pricing taking into account the macro-economic situation in Spain, we expect 2012 investment volumes to exceed those of 2011.”

VAt on new homes slashed

Vat slashed on Tenerife and Spanish homes

VAT on new homes will be slashed from 8pc to 4pc for the rest of the year, José Blanco, Minister of Public Works and Housing announced this week.

The VAT reduction will only apply to sales of new homes that take place before 1 January 2012. Someone buying a new home for 200,000 Euros before the end of the year from a bank or developer will pay 8,000 Euros less in VAT.

Resale properties will not benefit because they do not incur VAT. Anyone buying a resale from a private vendor will continue to pay a transfer tax of 8pc, rather than VAT at 4pc.

However, at least one savings bank – Catalunya Caixa – has announced that it will also offer a 4pc discount on all its resales (repossessed homes) between now and the end of the year. Others banks are expected to follow suit.

The Government’s stated objectives with this latest measure are to help reduce the stock of new homes for sale, giving the construction sector a boost and stimulating employment.

According to José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero – the Prime Minister  said “if it wasn’t for the construction sector, the Spanish economy would be growing at 2pc. All the jobs lost today are in construction.”

Elena Salgado, Minister of Finance, said the reduction in VAT will be “sufficient to reduce the stock of homes.”

As recently as July last year, the Government increased VAT on new homes from 7pc to 8pc in an attempt to increase revenues and reduce the budget deficit. This is a U-turn that hardly covers the Government in glory.

If the fall in VAT does anything to stimulate the market it will only benefit those with new homes for sale, principally developers. As a result, private vendors will find themselves under further pressure to reduce their asking prices.

The opposition Popular Party has promised to extend the rebate for an extra year if it wins the general election in November.

Vendors need to come to terms with drop in sale prices

Vendors need to come to terms with falling property prices in Tenerife

The vast majority of private vendors still haven’t come to terms with the drop in the value of their properties, argues José Luis Jimeno, MD of Noteges – a real estate and executive education portal.

According to Jimeno, pictured above, only vendors who drop their asking price 40pc to 50pc below the competition in their area have a hope of selling. As a result, 80pc of private vendors are asking prices that are out of the market.

Vendors on the coast, where there is a large glut of holiday homes, are even worse off. To make a sale, they will have to accept offers 60pc to 65pc below the prices they are asking today, he claims. “Private vendors are still trying to sell at boom prices,” says Jimeno, quoted in the Spanish press.

But Jimeno is not the only expert with something to say about asking prices. Juan Fernández-Aceytuno, MD of Sociedad de Tasación, one of Spain’s leading appraisal companies, recently said that sales close on average 15pc below asking prices, according to another recent article in the Spanish press. If he is right, then asking prices are not so far from reality as Jimeno suggests

Looking ahead Jimeno expects house prices to continue falling thanks to the bleak economic outlook in Spain.

His advice to vendors is far from sugar-coated. “It’s not a good time to sell, but if you have no alternative then make the sale now, because with every passing day your home will be worth less.”

That advice is particularly relevant to British vendors, who have to take into consideration exchange rates. The Euro is still strong against the Pound, benefiting British vendors repatriating capital to the UK, but the way things are going in the Eurozone, that might all change.

Sellers asking less for their homes at the cheaper end of the market

The number of vendors asking less for their homes leapt to 30,646 in May, 7% of all vendors and an increase of 73pc on last year. They reduced asking prices by an average of 8.2pc in a year.

So far this year 134,107 vendors have dropped their asking prices, 69pc more than last year and 31pc of the total.

In total, vendors are now asking 700 million Euros less in a month, 3.2 billion less this year, and 6.4 billion less in the last 12 months. That is potentially a huge transfer of wealth from vendors to buyers.

The biggest number of vendors asking less was at the cheaper end of the market, with 8.3pc of vendors with asking prices below €200,000 dropping their prices, compared to 6.5pc of vendors asking more than €600,000.

In value terms, however, prices at the cheaper end fell by an average of 8.6pc compared to 9.3pc for more expensive homes. This is the time to visit a reputable estate agent and look for that bargain in Tenerife, whether it is a cheaper property or a prime property.

Estate agents surveyed throughout Spain for their views on the property market.

Property sales increase in Tenerife, especially in the prime property market.

During February Idealista surveyed 400 estate agents all over Spain for their views on the property market today. They found that 30% of vendors accepted up to 10% lower, 43% accepted between 10 and 20% lower, 19% between 20 and 30% less, and 7% more than 30% less.

The change in stock of properties for sale since the end of 2010 resulted in a 58% of agents reported an increase. 88% of vendors were more open to offers than a year ago . The main reasons why sales fall through is that vendors were asking too much in 26% of cases, buyers offering too little in 40% of cases (remember, this is all in the opinion of estate agents), and banks not giving finance in 34% of cases.

Although there have been af fall in  enquiries so far this year, falls up to 20pc or more say 51%, whilst 24% say an increase of up to 10%.So life is not all bad in the property sector.

In sales so far this year, there have been falls of up to 20% or more say 71%, whilst 19% say an increase of up to 10%. The expectations for the first quarter of the year (compared to same period last year) are  47% say worse, 27% say the same, 26% say better and for the year, 33% say worse, 28% say the same, and 38% say better.

I wonder who will be correct? Certainly current  property sales in Tenerife indicate a brighter future for the sector, especially sales of prime property in good areas and by the coast.

Serious vendors dropping prices to ensure a sale.

Serious sellers in Tenerife and Spain drop prices to ensure the saleA growing number of vendors trying to sell their homes are dropping their asking prices, according to new research by one of Spain’s leading property portals. Asking prices for 18,007 resale properties in the Idealista database were reduced in June, 30% more than same time last year, and the highest level for 2 years. The number of price reductions has been on the rise every month since January, causing the 12-month average trend to rise after falling for about a year. But if the number of discounted properties is growing, the average discount value is not. Discount values peaked at the beginning of last year and have been declining ever since, so it’s a story of more, but smaller discounts.

The markets where the biggest proportion of vendors decided to drop prices were Madrid (9.3%) and Barcelona (7.4%). That means vendors in Spain’s two biggest markets are becoming more focused on finding a buyer.

- Asking prices were down just 0.5% in Q1 over Q2, to 2,374 €/m2.
- Prices rose in 5 regions: The Balearics (+2,4%) Galicia (+1,6%), Castilla y León (+1%), The Basque Country (+0,9%) y La Rioja (+0,6%).
- Prices rose just by 2 €/m2 in Barcelona, to 4,084 €/m2. Even so, prices there are still below where they were 5 years ago in Q1 2005. They are down 16.4% from the peak of 4,888 €/m2 in Q1 2007.
- Madrid fell 0.4% in Q1, to 3,831 €/m2, 11.2% below the peak of 4,315 €/m2 in Q2 2007.
- Valencia fell 0.7% to 2,335 €/m2, 18.4% below the Q2 2007 peak of 2,861 €/m2

Sellers in Tenerife and the Canary Isles are  also following this trend to ensure a quick sale.