Spanish prices fallen from peak

February 7, 2012 – 10:26 am

Spanish house prices have fallen 18% from the peak, according to the Government’s House Price Index. Is that enough? not according to Isidre Fainé,  head of La Caixa, Spain’s biggest savings bank, who says house prices could fall 50 to 60pc peak to trough.

Fainé  has the biggest branch network in Spain at his command.  La Caixa can probably afford the write-downs such a fall would imply. La Caixa are not alone forecasting more big falls. International rating agency Fitch say prices need to fall by 30 to 35pc peak to

Property prices fall in Spain and Tenerife

trough, or almost double what they have so far, before the market bottoms out.

 The official index is more misleading than it is revealing. In reality average prices are down somewhere between 30 and 50pc, not the 18pc the index would have us believe.  The index is taken at face value by international organisations and publications like The Economist, the OECD, the IMF, the European Commission, not to mention rating agencies like Fitch. Thus they all think Spanish property prices have only fallen 18pc and have much further to fall, when in reality the prices at which homes actually sell have fallen much more than that.

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TINSA and government house price index shows falling prices

February 2, 2012 – 10:37 am

Tinsa and government index shows property sales in Tenerife and Spain down in 2011

The House Price Index published by the Department of Housing shows house prices falling 6.8pc in 2011, and 19pc since the peak

Last week it was the appraisal company Tinsa’s house price index showing prices down 8pc in 2011. Now it’s the turn of the Government to publish it’s housing price index for 2011, showing a broadly similar decline of 6.8pc over 12 months to the end of December .

Both the Tinsa index and this one show  a double-dip starting at the end of 2010 and price-falls accelerating in the course of 2011.

After adjusting for inflation, Spanish house prices fell 9.6pc in real terms in 2011. So anyone with an inflation proof income (the majority of Spaniards with indefinite labour contracts) saw the real cost of buying a house fall by 10pc last year, or more if you include the 50% reduction in VAT on new homes.

Prices fell the most in Aragon (-10.4pc), Madrid (-8.2pc), Andalucia (-7.8pc) and Catalonia (-7.7pc), and the least in The Basque Region (-3.1pc), Asturias (-2.7pc), and Extremadura (-2.1pc). According to Fernando Encinar, head of research at the  Idealista, “there is no reason to think that anything is going to change in 2012.”

Of course you have to take all the official figures with a large pinch of salt. If the official index shows declines of 6.8pc, the reality was probably something between 10 and 15pc.

Soon to be published, and all that remains to be seen for 2011, is the official House Price Index from the National Statistics Institute, which should come out in the next month or two, and which tends to be used by the international press. Based on past form it will probably understate price declines more than any other index, which partly explains why so many articles in the international press say that Spanish property prices haven’t fallen enough.

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Developers ask government for mortgage interest tax relief on holiday homes

February 1, 2012 – 11:51 am

Developers ask for reduction of tax on properties in Spain and Tenerife

The G14 association of Spain’s leading developers says it will ask the Government to introduce mortgage interest tax relief on holiday homes to stimulate demand and deal with Spain’s   empty new holiday homes on the coast.

The Government has just reintroduced mortgage interest tax relief on main homes, despite the fact that it favours owner-occupiers at the expense of those who rent, and makes it harder for Spain to reach its stated goal of increasing the rental market. Developers want a similar tax break for holiday homes.

Some industry voices like Antonio Carroza  have wasted no time in describing the request as “irresponsible”. He believes it is wrong to use public money to subsidise “large developers so they can sell second homes that should never have been built,” he said, quoted in the Spanish press. In any event the tax relief would only apply to Spanish residents, not foreigners buying holiday homes in Spain and Tenerife.

The G14 has also called on the Government to reduce the ITP sales tax on resale properties.

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Potential purchasers looking for property discounts in Spain

January 6, 2012 – 9:45 am

Potential investors still want discount on property for sale in Spain and Tenerife

A  survey compiled by Spanish  portal Idealista reveals that potential homebuyers are looking for a property asking price discount of 21%, on average, despite the fact that prices have plunged  in recent years.

Data provided by Idealista shows that Spanish home prices dropped for the fifth consecutive year in 2011, with the average asking price now 20% below the high reached at peak of the market in 2007.

In spite of the fall in the property values, many would be purchasers feel as though values have not fallen enough to reflect the chronic oversupply of properties on the market, along with the country’s dire economic situation.

Spanish property commentator Mark Stucklin said: “As far as all other housing market indicators go, 2011 was another bad year, if not the worst since the crisis began. Property sales, house building, mortgage lending and confidence all tumbled to new lows, whilst repossessions hit new highs.”

Stuckin, like most Spanish property experts, expects home prices in Spain to continue falling in 2012.

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Second increase in CGT for non resident property owners in Spain

January 5, 2012 – 4:56 pm

Spain and Tenerife property owners hit by CGT rise.

A second increase in the Capital Gains Tax (CGT) levied on non-residents by the Spanish Tax Office has just been announced.

From January the 1st 2012 CGT for non-resident property owners in Spain will stand at 21% across the board. This follows a previous rise in 2010 from 18% to 19%.   In 2007 the European Union put pressure on Spain to lower the then CGT rate of 35% for non residents (15% for residents) to 18%  deeming it to be an unfair penalty on non-residents. A rise of 1% in 2010 passed relatively unnoticed but a  trend towards accelerating tax increases to boost the dwindling economy.  

Spanish Residents will also feel the increase with figures rising to 21% up to 6000 Euros , 25% between 6001 Euros and 24000 Euros and 27% on higher figures.

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Spain stepping up tax plans

January 3, 2012 – 10:07 pm

Spain's taxation approach helping property sales in Tenerife?

Spain is stepping up its tax plans to tackle the country’s deficit, but buyers are snapping up property regardless as further price drops are predicted for 2012.

The Spanish government’s predictions initially stated that national debt would amount to 6 per cent of GDP for 2011, but it was revealed last week that these figures were incorrect and that the country deficit is closer to 8 per cent.

Since then, Spain’s government has added that the debt “could be even higher”, according to The Daily Mail, prompting the recently elected Popular Party to go back on its pledge not to raise taxes. Property tax is expected to increase for homes above average value, Spain’s swift economic action has been welcomed by the EU as the country tries to reassure international investors who are snapping up properties at low prices.

Indeed, reports at the end of December from Global Property Guide found that foreign property transactions surged by 24.7 per cent in the third quarter of 2011, compared to the same period in 2010.

Alicante, Barcelona, the Balearic, Canary Islands and Malaga were all highlighted as popular areas for buyers, with research from Scotibank Group showing that house prices across Spain have fallen by 25 per cent since 2007. These price drops are now expected to continue in 2012.

Knight Frank’s Prime Global Forecast has predicted that global economic uncertainty will push Madrid’s property values down in the next 12 months. But with investors attracted by Spain’s declining property prices, Madrid’s fall of “less than five per cent” may provide more opportunities for international buyers. As Murcia prepares for the construction of its much-awaited Paramount Theme Park, buyers can benefit from the national downward trend while costs remain low.

Julio Adams said “Demand for key ready homes in this area is already high and we expect an equity boost of around 15 per cent for early buyers when the first spade goes in to start construction of Paramount Park.” With some Spanish regions seeing a gradual recovery and the number of foreign transactions on the up, the government’s reworked deficit plans may take Spain’s housing market in a positive new direction for the New Year.

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Spanish property market over the worst?

December 8, 2011 – 5:20 pm

Property slump over the worst in Spain and Tenerife?

A growing number of experts believe that the Spanish property market is showing tentative signs of recovery following one of the most spectacular housing crashes of all time.

Spanish property sales and prices have plummeted across the country in the past five years, on the back of the global credit crisis, a string of corruption scandals, a chronic oversupply of housing, a string of illegally constructed homes, a weak economy, high unemployment and a record level of foreclosures.

It is estimated that property prices have fallen by up to 70% in some parts of the country since the market peak of late 2006 leaving many people in negative equity and others facing repossession.

Although property prices are unlikely to bounce back anytime soon, some property commentators and professionals feel as though the market is reaching the bottom of the downturn.

Mark Stucklin of Spanish Property  commented: “I am of the opinion that this is about as low as the Spanish property market will go in volume terms. Q4 may well be another record low, but after that I expect the market to bottom out in the course of 2012. This is not to say there will be a strong recovery after that , far from it. But at least the market will have stopped shrinking.”

The latest report Global House Price report from Knight Frank suggests that market in Spain, along with some other struggling European nations, could be  over the worst

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3.4 Million Spanish homes are empty.

December 2, 2011 – 11:08 am

Too many empty homes in Spain

3.4 million Spanish homes lie empty, 13pc of the total housing stock  according to a new report from IDC. There are 676,000 empty homes in Barcelona and Madrid alone. Of the two, Barcelona has the biggest problem.

This is a “worrying situation with very negative consequences, principally a huge cost,” explains Carlos Parra, Director of IDC, quoted in the Spanish press. The empty homes are neither for sale nor for rent.

At the same time, tens of thousands of homes are being repossessed, and millions of young adults can’t afford their own home.

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Bankinter’s latest report on Spanish housing market.

December 1, 2011 – 9:57 am

 

Bankinter's latest report suggests that Spanish house prices will fall again

According to Bankinter’s latest report on the housing market in Spain, housing prices will fall an additional 6% up to the end of 2013, making an adjustment of 30% in real terms from their peak, and only begin to rise again in early 2014, when the economy is capable of generating employment and demand recovers.

With regard to their forecast made last April, the financial institution have deferred for a year the adjustment in the housing sector, saying that promoter activity will not take off until the last quarter of 2014, when the housing ‘stock’ will have reduced to below the 500,000 mark.

Until then, only discounts and minimum production, will “very slowly” digest a ‘stock’ of houses which now stands at, they estimate, between 850,000 and 900,000 homes, of which about 200,000 or 250,000 belong to financial institutions. Bankinter sees the two years ahead with demand at minimum levels because of high rates of unemployment, which in 2011 alone saw home sales plunge to around 200,000 new properties, which was 55% less than what was sold in 2007, the year with the highest recorded demand in history (412,000 homes).

Bankinter’s calculations suggest that the Spanish economy will grow 0.7% in 2011, half of what the Government anticipated  1.2% in 2012 and 1.6% in 2013, below the 2% needed to create jobs, reported Cinco Dias.

Source: Kyero.com

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Home sales fall once more

November 30, 2011 – 3:21 pm

Homes sales fall once more according to Spanish paper El Mundo

Home sales fell 31.9% in the third quarter of 2011 over the same period of 2010, accounting for 84,852 transactions, and representing the lowest figures recorded by the Association of Property Registrars since 2005.

The agency attributed the data to the difficult economic situation and high unemployment, which has not been alleviated by the reduction in prices and mortgage borrowing or by low interest rates.

El Mundo reported that, of the total number of homes sold between July and September, 41,734 were resales (28.7% less), a figure which marks a new low.

The remaining 43,118 homes sold were new (34.7% less), a figure that is above the record low reached in the last quarter, mainly due to the lowering of VAT for the purchase of housing (from 8 % to 4%) which came into force in August and will continue until the end of the year.

Source: Kyero

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