Tinsa shows house price index down by 8pc in 2011

Tinsa shows property sales in Tenerife and Spain down in 2011

Spain’s most reliable house price index fell 8.1pc in 2011, making last year almost as bad as the crisis year of 2008, when prices fell 8.8pc. There is a clear double-dip in the curve with price falls accelerating again after staging a feeble recovery last year.

One of the reasons house price declines have picked up speed is because of the return of the credit crunch in Spain. The double-dip in house prices is mirrored almost exactly by a double dip in new mortgage lending.  In coastal areas where holiday homes and much of the glut are concentrated finished the year better than other areas, with prices down 7.2pc over 12 months, compared to 9.1pc in cities and 8pc on the islands such as Tenerife.

Some experts argue that popular coastal areas will recover before the rest of the market thanks to diversified international demand from economies doing better than Spain

Cheaper homes in Spain

The average price of a Spanish home fell by 8% in 2011, with further price falls anticipated in 2012, research shows.

The Tinsa House Price Index, considered to be Spain’s most reliable residential property price index, reveals that average home prices fell by 8.1% in 2011, the worst annual decline in property values since 2008, when the average price a home in Spain fell by 8.8% year-on-year.

“There is a clear double-dip in the curve with price falls accelerating again after staging a feeble recovery last year,” said Spanish property commentator Mark Stucklin. The main reasons why home price falls have picked up pace are due to a lack of mortgage finance and a severe oversupply of homes on the market.

Stucklin added: “The double-dip in house prices is mirrored almost exactly by a double dip in new mortgage lending.”

Somewhat surprisingly, homes located in coastal areas, where there is generally the greatest oversupply of properties, finished the year better than other areas, with prices having declined by  7.2%, on average, year-on-year, compared to 9.1% in cities and 8% on the islands such as Tenerife.

Potential purchasers looking for property discounts in Spain

Potential investors still want discount on property for sale in Spain and Tenerife

A  survey compiled by Spanish  portal Idealista reveals that potential homebuyers are looking for a property asking price discount of 21%, on average, despite the fact that prices have plunged  in recent years.

Data provided by Idealista shows that Spanish home prices dropped for the fifth consecutive year in 2011, with the average asking price now 20% below the high reached at peak of the market in 2007.

In spite of the fall in the property values, many would be purchasers feel as though values have not fallen enough to reflect the chronic oversupply of properties on the market, along with the country’s dire economic situation.

Spanish property commentator Mark Stucklin said: “As far as all other housing market indicators go, 2011 was another bad year, if not the worst since the crisis began. Property sales, house building, mortgage lending and confidence all tumbled to new lows, whilst repossessions hit new highs.”

Stuckin, like most Spanish property experts, expects home prices in Spain to continue falling in 2012.

Spanish property bargains

Property bargains in Spain and Tenerife

Despite dramatic property price reductions by many vendors across Spain, bargain hunters are taking advantage of the weak Spanish property market and are offering considerably below asking prices, fresh research shows.

 The latest figures provided by Idealista reveals that in September, the average offer made online through the Spanish property portal was 21.7% below the asking price. Having analysed over 500,000 offers since January 2011, Idealista’s research found that January, March and September are the months with the greatest volume of offers made by purchasers, whilst June was the weakest month in terms of demand. Spanish property investment opportunities The majority of Spanish property investors – 73% – believe that the Spanish property market will improve within the next 18 months, according to a new survey.

The latest study by international property consultants CB Richard Ellis found that three in four Spanish property investors expect market conditions to improve, despite the fact that prices are still falling across many parts of the country. The latest property investment barometer from CB Richard Ellis showed that Spain is expected to improve in early 2013, while 57% of those surveyed said they planned to invest in the Spanish property market within the next 6 months. The majority of investors are interested in buying commercial properties, rather than residential, with half of investors looking to buy offices, while 40% are interested in prime shopping centres. Just 7% of investors said that they plan to buy residential property.

A lack of mortgage liquidity remains a major stumbling block in Spain, which is why three in five investors believe that foreign investors with greater access to financing will drive the market recovery. Take advantage of the weak Spanish property market Domestic investors are taking centre stage in Spain’s investment market making up 66.2% of investors in Q1-Q3 2011, up from 33.3% in the same period in 2010 according to international real estate advisor Savills. Total volume in Spain’s investment market totalled almost €1.25bn (£1.07bn) in the first three quarters of 2011. The firm notes that as well as ongoing sales of large mixed use portfolios which banks are attempting to remove from their balance sheets, local authorities are also selling assets to gain liquidity.

Both the Andalusian and Catalan Regional Governments have portfolios on the market, including well-located office assets, which Savills observes are attracting interest from both opportunistic and core investors. Danny Kinnoch, international investment director Savills Spain, says: “In recent times there has been a two tier market with opportunistic investors focused on portfolio and large scale individual deals while the more traditional core investors remain focused on well-located, high-quality assets with high occupancy rates and solvent tenants on long-term lease contracts. Domestic investors continue to dominate the core market but international players remain on the lookout for opportune deals.” According to Savills major international players including Orion, RREEF, Generali Lend Lease, Doughty Hanson, AXA, Perella Weinberg and Rockspring have all been active this year. Savills has observed increased investor interest in Spain’s hotels market, a shift from the historically dominant retail and office markets and a reflection of the strength of tourism in a challenging economic climate. Key deals in the first three quarters of 2011 include Grupo Millenium’s purchase of two hotel assets, Hesperia Madrid from Hesperia for €80m (£69m) and Tryp Centro Norte from Colonial for €30m (£27m), both in Madrid as well as Mansion Services’ acquisition of Intercontinental Madrid from Morgan Stanley for approximately €68m (£58m). The total investment volume Q1-Q3 represents a fall of 52% compared to the same period in 2010, but with more realistic pricing and improved market sentiment Savills expects 2012 investment volumes to improve on 2011. Kinnoch says: “With an improvement in market sentiment in relation to other Euro countries combined with more realistic pricing taking into account the macro-economic situation in Spain, we expect 2012 investment volumes to exceed those of 2011.”

Spanish property hunters offer 20% less than asking price

Offers made for property in Spain and Tenerife lower than previous

In September, the average offer made online through the Spanish property portal idealista.com was 21.7pc below the asking price. Idealista offer a tool to research the difference between offers and asking prices by area.

Idealista allow house hunters to make offers online, and have analysed more than 500,000 offers since January. The research reveals that January, March and September are the months with the greatest number of offers made by house-hunters, whilst June was the weakest month in terms of demand.

According to Fernando Encinar, head of research at Idealista.com, demand is strong but house-hunters “can’t afford asking prices and are making offers they can afford to try and close the sale.”

Tenerife offers according to the research are down 28.7%

Opportunities to purchase properties at low prices in Tenerife and Spain

Property bargains available in Spain, Tenerife and the islands

During the last three decades, hundreds of thousands of Britons have purchased property in Spain. Nonetheless, a surplus of villas and apartments has spawned due to mortgage defaults from British buyers. By noting the declining property prices during the month of June, according to valuation and consulting firm Tinsa’s latest General IMIE (Spanish Property Market Index) report, one can see the opportunity to purchase Spanish property at a low price. This is why British investors are continuing to invest in the Spanish real estate market.

Along the Mediterranean coast, the Balearic and Canary Island archipelagos are amongst the most popular tourist and investment attractions in Spain. The Balearic Islands feature Mallorca, Menorca, Ibiza, and Formentera. With its Opera House, Mallorca offers a stately and elegant experience, while King Juan Carlos’ castle sits in Palma. Menorca offers a drier climate than the aforementioned Mallorca, in addition to cool breezes. Menorca has also garnered fame for its production of leather goods and gin. Ibiza has recently improved its reputation from years past, and Formentera offers an intimate and secluded getaway.

The Mediterranean Coast offers numerous overseas investment opportunities.

From the bright lights of Benidorm to the opulence of Moraira and the resorts towns of Javea and Denia, the Costa Blanca offers a smorgasbord of options. The Costa Blanca is serviced by Alicante airport, now supplemented by inexpensive flights to Valencia on the northern Costa. This enhances tourists and property buyers’ access to the Spanish region during the year. The Costa features the Mediterranean highway, which runs alongside the coast for virtually the entire length of the Costa Blanca, enabling easy travel.

Tenerife and the Canary islands, firm favourites over the years with the British has property available at prices not heard of during the last five years. Maybe this is the time to bag that bargain?

Housing market subdued in first five months of year

Property prices falling in Spain and Tenerife during first five months of year

In the first 5 months of the year, the housing market was as subdued as the same period in 2009, until now the worst year on record. Excluding social housing there were 26,682 homes sales in May, 21pc less than the same month last year, according to the latest stats from the Government (NIE).

Home sales in the last 3 months have been the lowest since the crisis began. Year to date (end May), sales are down 8pc on last year and are almost the same (+2pc) as 2009 – the year that market the depths of the crisis until now.

Compared to 2007, sales in May were 62pc down and 54pc down year-to-date. Factor in price falls and the market has shrunk more than 70pc by value since 2007.

With Spanish unemployment refusing to budge from a calamitous 20pc, mortgage credit tightening, and expectations of falling house price increasingly entrenched, there’s no reason to expect the overall market to recover this year. Having said that patches of brightness are appearing in Tenerife in certain sectors of the property market.

House price index for Spain

The Official House Price Index published by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) would have us believe that Spanish house prices fell a mere 1.9pc in 2010

New build (vivienda nueva) prices fell -2.1pc, and resales (segunda mano) fell -1.6pc

The suggestion that Spanish property prices only fell 1.9pc last year, against a background of 20pc unemployment, tightening mortgage credit, and a monumental property glut is difficult to fathom.

These figures tend to distort price signals from the market and put off potential buyers. We might be better off if the INE did not publish house price figures. Not all official figures are so unreliable. According to figures from the Department of Housing, prices fell -3.5pc last year, and 6.5pc in real terms (after adjusting for inflation). That sounds closer to the truth, even if maybe still a touch  too optimistic.

Meanwhile, whilst mainland  Spain struggles in the property sector, the  islands, particularly the Balearics continue to improve, Tenerife being the best performer from the Canary Islands at the moment, mainly in the area of prime coastal property.

Housing glut to shrink to manageable level by 2013 says Spain’s Ministry of Finance

Housing glut lasts in mainland Spain but improves in Tenerife and the islands

In a drive to reassure international money markets that Spain can deal with its real estate problems, the Ministry of Finance has claimed that Spain’s infamous housing-glut will shrink to a manageable level of 200,000 homes by 2013.

For that to happen Spain will have to sell 900,000 new homes between now and then (300,000 per year), whilst building around 175,000 new homes on average per year. In the chart above, the dotted line forecasts the new housing inventory in 2013.

Some experts have raised doubts that the market will be able to digest 300,000 new homes per year, bearing in mind that resale transactions must also be taken into account.

According to the latest figures from the Government (Fomento) and the property register, analysed in an article by El Confidencial, the net change in the number of new homes on the market over the latest 12 months was a decline of just 30,000, way below Government estimates for the next few years. If that rate continues it will take several years longer to digest the glut. The Government also produced an analysis of the relationship between price falls and the stock of new homes on the market in different areas.

 Madrid and coastal provinces of mainland Spain, where most holiday-homes are located, tend to have the largest gluts and price falls. However the islands such as Tenerife and Majorca have seen an upturn in prices this year

Tinsa price index latest results

Tinsa index now shows positive signs for the property market in Tenerife

The Tinsa Spanish House Price Index for February (change over 12 months) is  as follows:

National average -4.5pc
Big cities – 5.2pc
Mediterranean Coast -6.7pc
The Balearics & Canaries -0.8pc

Peak-to-present:

Mediterranean Coast -27.2pc
Capitals -20.6pc
The Balearics & Canaries -17.5pc