Real estate sector won’t recover until mid-2011 says Bank of Spain

Real estate in Spain, Tenerife and the Canary Isles still undergoing a recovery

Real estate in Spain, Tenerife and the Canary Isles still undergoing a recovery

The Bank of Spain (BoS)  says the real estate sector in Spain, Tenerife and the Canary Isles,will remain in recession until mid-2011 at least.  Spain’s economic miracle of the last decade was largely built on an unsustainable bubble in the real estate sector. When that bubble burst, as it did in 2008, it sent the Spanish economy into a tailspin. In a new report released last week the Bank of Spain now says the real estate sector won’t start to recover until mid-2011, casting doubt on recent press reports suggesting a housing market recovery is already underway. Cheap credit sent property prices and housing starts through the roof. It was never going to last for ever, but the credit crunch made sure that it came to a particularly brutal end. When credit crunch struck, the house of cards collapsed. The BoS says that the “correction” is not yet over . “Residential (housing) investment will continue contracting until the middle of 2011,” says the report. In 2007 it peaked at 7.5% of GDP, way above the OECD average. Next year the BoS forecasts it will fall to 4%. At that point, residential investment as a percentage of GDP will have fallen below the minimum it reached in 1994, during the last recession.

All of which is bad news for the Spanish economy, dependent as it was on the real estate sector for jobs and growth. “The housing market adjustment has sever macroeconomic implications in the context of the recession,” says the BoS report. As a result of the property crisis, the sector has shed 2 million jobs. The BoS says that, by the time this drama is over, the property crash will have reduced the Spanish economy by 5.4% compared to the end of 2007.

Notary fees cheaper in Spain after government cuts

A reduction in notary fees on property purchases in Spain and Tenerife

A reduction in notary fees on property purchases in Spain and Tenerife

The government has announced a 5% reduction in notary and registry fees on property deeds as part of a package of measures to reduce the deficit and stimulate the economy. Notaries and Registrars are upset at this attack on their earnings, whilst house buyers will hardly notice the difference the savings are so small.

How big a saving will that 5% reduction in notary and registry fees give the average home buyer in Spain? Between €35 for a property costing €150,000, and €45 for a home costing €300,000, according to calculations done by Idealista.es, a Spanish property portal. Almost insignificant really.

Notaries and registrars are upset as the latter’s fees are already down by 50% thanks to the slump in property transactions.

Knocking down British expats houses hurting Spain’s economy

Knocking down expats homes is damaging the Spanish economy

Knocking down expats homes is damaging the Spanish economy

A Foreign Office minister warned Spain on Sunday that knocking down British expatriates’ houses was hurting its economy.  

 

 

Chris Bryant, Minister for Europe, said that the country was undermining efforts to create a recovery in its beleaguered housing market. He was speaking yesterday during a visit to south-eastern Spain to meet British expatriates who have been told that their homes will be bulldozed after Spanish authorities declared their construction illegal. The authorities there have been waging a campaign against former officials accused of allowing overdevelopment of coastal regions. Local governments issued building licences for the properties, but these were later nullified following court action instigated by a higher regional government.

Mr Bryant cautioned: “The housing market in Spain is not going to recover quickly if pictures of bulldozers knocking down expats’ homes are appearing in British newspapers. Everyone I’ve spoken to in Spain says they want to find a solution but wanting a solution and getting one are two different things.”

He said: “Obviously it’s not for the British Government to tell the Spanish what to do. But I’m pushing the message hard at all government levels that I meet here that they have got to put political willpower into these problems, whether it’s an amnesty, whether it’s a change in the law, whatever the solution is that is needed. That is the point I am pushing. I have to say also that there is an enormous difference between the Britons who just make a cursory legal deal - that is always ill advised - and those who have done everything they should or could have done but still find themselves in deep trouble.”

Spain’s risk assessment downgraded

Spain's risk assessment downgraded.

Spain's risk assessment downgraded.

Ratings agency Standard & Poor’s has downgraded its risk assessment level for Spain’s banking sector, warning of “high credit losses” during the country’s recession. The move leaves Spain’s banking sector on the same level as that of United States and Britain. “We believe that Spanish financial institutions are likely to operate in a difficult economic environment over a prolonged period,” it said in a statement.

“Spain’s financial system is likely… to suffer high credit losses during the recession, owing to the corporate sector’s high indebtedness, rapid credit expansion, and financial institutions’ meaningful exposure to the Spanish property sector.

“Problem loans will likely peak in 2010, according to our estimates, with higher-than-historical average credit provisions continuing through 2011,” the agency said. As a result the agency has downgraded its Banking Industry Country Risk Assessment (BICRA) rating for Spain “to Group 3 from Group 2,” it said.

The BICRA incorporates Standard & Poor’s “view of the strengths and weaknesses of a country’s banking system compared with those of other countries, according to a scale that ranges from Group 1 (the strongest) to Group 10 (the weakest),” it said. “Today’s revision reflects the greater weight we now attribute in our BICRA for Spain to the risks we see arising from the country’s deteriorated economy,” said Standard & Poor’s credit analyst Elena Iparraguirre.

But she said the Spanish financial sector “faces the difficult economic environment from a sound position… thanks to its robust regulatory and supervisory framework, resilient operating profitability … and the industry’s strong retail banking segment.”

Spanish banks got off relatively lightly from the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 as the country’s strict regulations meant they did not invest heavily in the high-risk loans that hurt financial institutions elsewhere. S&P said Spain’s economic risk score, a subcomponent of the BICRA, remains at ‘3′.

The Spanish economy, the fourth largest in the eurozone, has been mired in recession since the end of 2008 as the global financial crisis hastened the collapse of its once-buoyant property sector. The recession sent the unemployment rate soaring to nearly 19 per cent in the fourth quarter.

The agency last December lowered its credit rating outlook on Spain to “negative” from “stable,” warning that the country faced a “prolonged” period of sluggish economic growth.

Last month, it warned that Spain could fail to meet its target of cutting the public deficit to within the EU limit by 2013 due to its “weak economic growth prospects.”

Spain’s problems have also triggered concerns that it could follow in the shaky footsteps of Greece, whose budget crisis prompted the European Union to place it under unprecedented scrutiny.

Thousands flock to Tenerife on cruise ships.

Thousands of tourists will be boosting Tenerife's economy again soon.

Thousands of tourists will be boosting Tenerife's economy again soon when the cruise ships start to visit once more.

The cruise ships will be bringing much needed revenue to Tenerife in the next few weeks, consisting mostly of  tourists from Britain,France, Germany and Italy. On February 3rd the MSC Fantasy arrives to kick off the influx arriving in Santa Cruz.

With unemployment rising on the island, this will be a welcome boost for the island’s economy.

Cheaper travel may help the Tenerife economy.

 Families can expect to save several hundred pounds a year because airlines  are being forced to discount prices.

Cheaper travel may help Tenerife's economy

Cheaper travel may help Tenerife's economy

Holidaymakers can look forward to a decade of cheap travel because of the global recession, according to industry experts so for those who rent out property in Tenerife this is great news. 

 

One company estimated that the average British family spent nearly £2,092 on a holiday this year than a fall of £257 compared to 2007.

According to a Euromonitor the fall in spending has been due to families economising, staying in less comfortable surroundings and hunting for cheaper flights. In turn, this has led to companies discounting heavily as they try to cope with the dramatic drop in travel.

As a result, Euromonitor says, prices were 20-30 per cent lower this year than last and the trend is set to continue for a decade, said Caroline Bremner, the head of the research team. “People have been trading down,” she said. “The industry is caught in a vicious circle of discounting. “It will be hard to bring prices back up, even when there is a recovery, because people have got use to discounted prices.” The impact of the recession was outlined at the start of the World Travel Market in London’s docklands.

Ms Bremner also believes that Britain is set to follow America where the travel industry is now catering to the “funemployed” - people who, having lost their jobs, are spending their redundancy pay on the holiday of a lifetime.

Companies are offering discounts to the new army of jobless, using slogans like “laid off, take off” to win the business.

Package holidays had been on the wane with the increasing use of the internet and holidaymakers booking do-it-yourself holidays, hunting for the cheapest flights and accommodation. So if you have a property to rent or let for holiday or longer term, providing your price point is correct you should reap the rewards of this new era

Sterling sellers can sell cheaper and still end up with the same money!

A drop in sale price yet still the same Sterling to take back to the UK thanks to the exchange rate!

A drop in sale price yet still the same amount of sterling to take back to the UK thanks to the exchange rate!

The Spanish see that the property market has been abandoned by many UK buyers due to the poor strength of the pound. However, sterling sellers can sell at 20% below what the property was marketed at a year ago and still end up with the same amount of sterling to take back the UK with them.
Also,  the stock of B-money, which  comes out at this time for cash purchases will also support the economy for sometime, although it is foreseen that the recession will be sufficiently long in Spain and Tenerife as to draw out most of this ‘resource’. Maybe this is the Bank of Spain’s cunning plan to remove the alternative economy. Unfortunately, the raising of taxes may just encourage it even more.

Over supply of properties expected to continue

New builds fall in Spain

New builds in mainland Spain need to fall considerably.

The over supply of properties in Spain is expected to continue growing, and could soon top 800,000 by the end of 2009, according to the G-14 group of the largest Spain property developers. The G14,  has again called on the government to stimulate the Spanish housing market.

The volume of homes being constructed in Spain needs to come to a virtual halt, in order to allow demand to catch up with the existing glut of properties in Spain. The latest G-14 report agrees that the oversupply in properties “is causing a sever contraction in housing starts.” With fears that mass unemployment looms over the construction sector in Spain, the G-14 has called on the government, again, to help to stimulate the housing market.

The report added: “In the absence of compensatory measures, the additional fall in the number of homes under construction will continue damaging the labour market in the coming months.

“Measures aimed towards changing the tendency in sales and housing starts in the residential sector, whose contribution to the recovery of the Spanish economy will be critical.” However the situation in Tenerife is much better and the trend to buy quality prime property is continuing to rise once more.

How to set prices when selling property

setting-price

Setting the correct sale price on property in Tenerife is important

The real estate market is subject to frequent fluctuations, more so when the economy is not doing too well as it is right now. In such a situation, if you’re looking to sell a property that you own, you need to ensure that the price does not go either too low so that you hardly break even, or too high that it scares away potential buyers from the scene…

There are various factors that go into setting the price of property, some of them being:

Location: This is probably the largest factor that decides the price of property. The closer it is to prime locations, the more its value.

The condition of the property: For property to fetch a top price, it must be maintained in a good condition. If your home or other asset does not have a run-down and neglected appearance, it’s going to be easier to find a buyer who will pay more for it.

Market conditions: No matter how good a property is, and how prime a location in which it is situated, if the market is down, you cannot  ask beyond a certain amount. If you do so, you may not be able to find any takers for your property, since others in your position will be offering similar property at lower prices.

The necessity to sell: If you are desperate to make a quick sale, you may be willing to settle for much less than your asking rate. However, if you don’t mind waiting for the market to look up or for a buyer who agrees to your asking rate, then you may be able to hold out long enough without reducing the price. Setting a rate depends on how soon you need the proceeds of the sale and the purpose you need it for. An emergency may make you sell at any rate rather than hold on and struggle for much-needed money.

If you’re able to sell your home with  an agent but without a lawyer, (which is easy to do in Tenerife),you would save on costs. 

 

Certainly there are some great bargains in Tenerife at present for those with cash, from one bedroom apartments, to villas complete with pool by the sea.

Government to stimulate market by eliminating mortgage relief for higher earners.

Government aims to stimulate property sales in Tenerife

 As part of a raft of useless gestures to deal with the economic crisis, José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, Spain’s Socialist Prime Minister, has announced that mortgage relief will be eliminated on mortgages taken out after 2011 by borrowers with incomes of 24,000 Euros or more.

The measure is supposed to stimulate the housing market by giving buyers a reason to bring forward their purchase, rather than wait and potentially lose their right to mortgage relief.

If it were to succeed, this would help mop up Spain’s housing glut of 1 million new homes, and eliminate a fiscal incentive to buy rather than rent, something that organisations like the IMF and OECD have been calling for for some time.

Zapatero announced the measure during the annual state of the nation debate in Parliament this week as a way to deflect attention from Spain’s economic problems. In typical Zapatero style it was presented as a ‘progressive’ measure that only hits ‘high earners’.

In reality, however, the plan hits the middle class, and given property prices and incomes in Spain, will affect almost anyone with enough money to buy a home. Mortgage relief will be reduced after 17,000, and eliminated after 24,000 Euros income per annum.

The opposition leader Mariano Rajoy called it an “attack on the interests of the middle classes” and said his party would retain and increase mortgage relief to stimulate the market.

Developers have criticised the plan, calling it a negative stimulus. Though it may help them shift some stock in the short run, it will harm them in the long run, reducing the incentive for people to buy homes from developers.

Some experts are claiming that banks will be the biggest, and possibly only beneficiaries of this measure. “The banks are the ones with the key to financing and with the cheapest property,” Eduardo Molet, President of the Network of Property Experts, told the Spanish press. “But thinking that the banks will sell their stock rapidly is a mistake, as their product isn’t exactly the best,” Molet points out.

Mortgage relief in Spain is only available to residents with mortgages on their primary residence. As such, Zapatero’s plan will have little impact on the second home market on the coast. Nevertheless, it could affect Britons and other foreigners relocating to Spain and buying a main home with a mortgage, if they have incomes above 17,000 Euros per annum.

Eliminating mortgage relief does little to address the real problem of the Spanish property market, namely that too much inappropriate, unattractive, and overpriced property has been built, especially on the coast in mainland Spain, whilst in Tenerife this is not a problem.