TINSA and government house price index shows falling prices

Tinsa and government index shows property sales in Tenerife and Spain down in 2011

The House Price Index published by the Department of Housing shows house prices falling 6.8pc in 2011, and 19pc since the peak

Last week it was the appraisal company Tinsa’s house price index showing prices down 8pc in 2011. Now it’s the turn of the Government to publish it’s housing price index for 2011, showing a broadly similar decline of 6.8pc over 12 months to the end of December .

Both the Tinsa index and this one show  a double-dip starting at the end of 2010 and price-falls accelerating in the course of 2011.

After adjusting for inflation, Spanish house prices fell 9.6pc in real terms in 2011. So anyone with an inflation proof income (the majority of Spaniards with indefinite labour contracts) saw the real cost of buying a house fall by 10pc last year, or more if you include the 50% reduction in VAT on new homes.

Prices fell the most in Aragon (-10.4pc), Madrid (-8.2pc), Andalucia (-7.8pc) and Catalonia (-7.7pc), and the least in The Basque Region (-3.1pc), Asturias (-2.7pc), and Extremadura (-2.1pc). According to Fernando Encinar, head of research at the  Idealista, “there is no reason to think that anything is going to change in 2012.”

Of course you have to take all the official figures with a large pinch of salt. If the official index shows declines of 6.8pc, the reality was probably something between 10 and 15pc.

Soon to be published, and all that remains to be seen for 2011, is the official House Price Index from the National Statistics Institute, which should come out in the next month or two, and which tends to be used by the international press. Based on past form it will probably understate price declines more than any other index, which partly explains why so many articles in the international press say that Spanish property prices haven’t fallen enough.

All time record visits to Spain in August

Record numbers of visitors to Spain and Tenerife during August

In August this year 7.64 million foreign tourists visited Spain, an all-time record for the country.

According to reports from FRONTUR, August saw a 9.4 per cent increase in the number of tourists from 2010, indicating a new monthly high for the booming Spanish tourism industry.

Since the beginning of 2011, 40 million tourists have visited Spain, a 7.8 per cent increase over the same period last year. The Ministry of Industry which produces the tourist movement survey suggests that August visitor figures ‘reinforces the good prospects of Spain in 2011′ highlighted by the fourth best year in the history of Spanish tourism, a great achievement considering the economic recovery only began back in the second half of 2010.

Further data indicates that while Brits are one of the most regular and indeed loyal visitors to Spanish shores standing at 9.5 million, there has been impressive increases in numbers of other foreign visitors, with a rise in American, German and talian visitors. By destination, Catalonia was the largest recipient of foreign tourists receiving 1.9 million visitors in August, while the Balearic Islands followed closely behind with 1.8 million.

Ignacio Osle, Sales & Marketing Manager of Taylor Wimpey España, comments, “Despite difficult economic conditions across mainland Europe, Spain is one of the most resilient holiday destinations, remaining popular with foreigners whatever the market conditions. Recently, the IMF stated that Spain will be the only country that will experience higher levels of growth next year compared to its European counterparts of France, Italy and Greece.”

The rising number of overseas visitors continues to spell good news for the property industry. Osle adds: “Mallorca is one such destination that has performed better on the property front than its mainland counterparts offering strong rental market potential.”

Spanish property market grows once more

Spanish and Canarian property on the risw once more.

Spanish and Canarian property on the rise once more.

The Spanish property market grew by 16% in February compared to the same month last year, according to the latest figures to be published by the country’s National Institute of Statistics
Not including social housing, there were 35,720 home sales in February, 21,368 of them newly built and 19,665 resales. According to analysts the market has touched bottom and is starting to recovery after two years of decline but the improvement is patchy and volumes are still 47% below what they were in 2007.

An examination of the figures shows that 79% of the increase in transactions came from just two regions. Catalonia saw a 43% increase and Madrid was up 36% while the market continued to shrink or stagnate in many coastal areas popular with foreign buyers. Malaga and Alicante saw year on year increases of 3% and 3.8% respectively and Andalucia saw a 7% rise. Granada and Cadiz were both up 14% and Valencia saw 23% growth.

Local figures suggest that Marbella is leading the way to recovery with figures from the town’s tax office revealing that 2,499 properties were sold in the first three months of this year, a rise of more than 200% compared to the same period in 2009 when just 820 properties were sold and the highest for four years.

Meanwhile, the latest property price index from Tinsa shows that prices fell by 5.3% over the 12 months to the end of March, a slight improvement on the previous month. The figures from Tinsa, one of Spain’s leading appraisal companies, are however based on their own valuations not actual transaction prices.

Since the peaks of December 2007, prices are down 16.2% nationally, 22.5% on the Mediterranean coast, and 13.6% in the Canaries and the Balearics. But there are no signs of foreign property buyers returning to the Spanish market. The latest figures from the Bank of S;pain show that the amount of money invested by foreigners in Spanish property has fellen to its lowest level for a decade.

Foreigners invested €3.7 billion in Spanish property last year, the lowest level since 1999, when it was €2.9 billion. Foreign investment in Spanish real estate was down 32% last year compared to 2008, and by 48% compared to 2003, when foreign investment in Spanish property peaked.  But the weak economy, high unemployment and enormous inventory of new houses will slowdown any recovery in the Spanish market, according to a report from PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Urban Land Institute into European property market trends.

Upturn in Spanish housing sales.

Upturn in Spanish property market

Upturn in Spanish property market

There was a small upturn in Spanish housing sales during the fourth quarter of last year, according to recent data released by the Spanish Ministry of Housing.

The increase was small, but enough for the Government to get excited about: “The transactions in the fourth quarter represent a rise of 4.1% with respect to the same period last year, this being the first year-on-year rise since the fourth quarter of 2006″.

In fact, if you just look at the ordinary housing market, the upturn was even better. Excluding social housing there were 116,664 house sales in Q4, a rise of 5.5%. Regrettably, that’s where the good news ends.

Take the year as a whole, there 413,112 transactions last year, a fall of 19% compared to the previous year, and a whopping 46% down on 2007. Even the Q4 was down 33% compared to 2 years ago.

Some regions did better than others. Looking at a selection of regions popular with holiday home buyers, the inland province of Teruel suffered the most in 2009, down 36%, followed by Las Palmas in The Canaries, down 32%. At the other end of the scale, Spain’s two big cities did the best, down just 1.7% in Madrid and 3.9% in Barcelona.

The small national upturn in Q4 that got the Ministry excited was almost entirely driven by big increases in Catalonia and Madrid (Barcelona +35%, Madrid +41%). Why the big surge in home sales in those two cities in the last quarter of 2009? I don’t know. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it had more to do with banks shifting Spanish property around their balance sheets than families buying homes to live in.

Still pain in Spain

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The pain in Spain's property market continues, although some areas including Tenerife are fairing better.

Data  shows that resale Spain property values dropped at a slower pace of decline in Q2, compared to the preceding quarter.
Resale Spanish home values fell by 12.5% in the first quarter of 2009, but slowed to a decline of 11.2% in the second quarter.

The index also claim that Spanish areas traditionally popular with foreign investors, such as Tenerife, Andalucia and Murcia, are holding up well. But areas such as Madrid, Catalonia, and the Basque Country, where values appreciated the most during the boom years, experienced that largest price declines.

Despite the government data, some people  are dubious of the figures and advise caution stating that new-build Spain property prices have fallen by far more than the report suggests.