
Opportunities still available in Tenerife, the Canary Islands and Spain
We think there are good investment opportunities in Spanish and Canarian real estate today, but some are risky. In three years we’ll probably be kicking ourselves for not advising more investors to invest now. There aren’t many opportunities in commercial real estate because there isn’t much product and rents haven’t yet adjusted. In residential, on the other hand, the correction has been very strong and fast. The ideal profile now is an opportunistic investor buying properties off banks by taking on the existing debt, a type of real estate venture capital.
There are hundreds of thousands of possible transactions, but not so many genuine opportunities. What there is not is any financing, so anyone who wants to take advantage of this market has to take the debt with the asset.
House prices touched bottom some time ago, they had to fall. The price of land has fallen faster than house prices although it could even fall a bit more. In the US and the UK prices have fallen around 20% from the peak whilst here we have only fallen by 8%. Valuations appear to be down 30% in 2 years.. One has to look at real property transactions and a survey of developers to see not only their asking prices but how far they are prepared to drop prices to sell. Quite a few homes are being sold more than 200,000 homes a year in fact. What is not selling is off-plan, as there you take the risk of the developer or builder going bankrupt? It’s a good time to buy newly built homes with Euribor at 1.24%. They won’t be any cheaper next year. And when prices start to rise they will do so at a rate of 10% per year. Perhaps that purchase in Tenerife should be made sooner rather than later!
The residential sector is already recovering, just not the developers, who won’t see the light at the end of the tunnel for three years; it is very bleak for them. We believe that developers have dropped their prices to the minimum. The recovery is underway, although this won’t show up in the official statistics until the first half of 2010. As soon as there is a general perception that things are getting better, house prices will stop falling and start rising.